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عمومی::
نظرسنجی Literary Digest
winner of an election, some commentator is sure to mention the Literary Digest Poll of
One lesson to be learned from The Literary Digest poll is that the sheer size of a sample is no guarantee of its accuracy.
The Literary Digest poll was accurate for five successive elections-until suddenly, in 1936, it wasn't.
A typical election poll in 2021 has a much lower response rate than the Literary Digest poll, but modern survey samplers use statistical models, described in Chapters 8 and 15, to adjust for the nonresponse.
We'll return to the Literary Digest poll in Chapter 15 and see if a nonresponse model would have improved the poll's forecast (and perhaps have saved the magazine).
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